Monday, March 16, 2020 @ 3:00 PM
Dear Calvary Bible Church,
I am writing to describe the COVID 19 viral infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (also know as corona virus).
As we face this pandemic, the advice given to the world is consistent and clear: Don’t panic, but be smart. Understand the risks and take the necessary precautions to help contain and mitigate the virus.
This letter is designed to help you navigate through the uncertain weeks ahead. My goals of writing to you about this disease are to answer the following questions: What do we know about the virus? How dangerous is it? How can you best protect yourself and your loved ones? What are some tips for prevention? and How is the best way to quarantine? Please recognize that what I am sharing is from peer reviewed articles.
What is a coronavirus?
The virus behind the current pandemic belongs to a family known as coronaviruses. Named for the crown-like spikes on their surfaces, they infect mostly bats, fish, pigs, and small mammals. They mutate easily, and can jump from animals to humans, and from one human to another. Seven strains, including the new coronavirus, are known to infect humans, causing illnesses in the respiratory tract. Four of those strains cause common colds, two others rank among the deadliest of human infections: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, and Middle East Respiratory syndrome, or MERS. This new virus is called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2. The disease it causes is called Covid-19.(The number stands for 2019, the year it emerged).
Where did the new coronavirus come from?
The new virus likely originated from bats or fish. It is not known exactly where or how it jumped to humans. What we do know is that the outbreak originated in a large animal and seafood market in Wuhan, China. The first reported cases that stirred concern were 4 unusual cases of pneumonia (3 in the same family) noticed by Dr. Zhang on 12-26-2019. By Jan 23, 2020 there were a total number of cases of 267, at this time Wuhan City shut down. On Jan 30,2020 the world health organization announces public international emergency. Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but failed to follow strict quarantine measures. Consequently the growth of the virus grew exponentially in these countries. Unfortunately, the United States falls into the risk category of exponential growth because of the absence of extreme measures to quarantine the virus.
What are the symptoms of the illness, and how do you know if you have it?
The virus infects the lower respiratory tract. The most common symptoms are fever and a dry cough with other mild flu like symptoms. There are minimal sinus congestion or GI symptoms. Patients who are hospitalized develop shortness of breath around 4-9 days. The symptoms worsen around 6-8 days. Among hospitalized patients, fever last 8-13 days and cough last 12-23 days. Patients are contagious for 3-4 weeks (10 days after fever breaks). If you are feeling shortness of breath, this is an emergency, you must go to the local hospital ASAP.
Who is at greatest risk?
All ages have been infected, but the risk of severe disease and death is highest for older patients and those who’s immune systems are compromised. Lung function declines with age, making respiratory diseases a particularly serious threat for older patients. So far there are no cases of children suffering from lung disease or death.
How dangerous is it?
The majority of infections, 80%, are mild; 15% are severe requiring hospitalization and 5% are critical necessitating intensive care ventilator support.
According to a recent article by AHA the following are statistics projected by epidemiologist (statisticians who track diseases) that will affect the United States : Doubling time for the virus 7-10 days, this is exponential growth. For example day one case equals 2 cases by 10 days, then 4 cases at 20 days, 16 cases at 30 days; 256 cases 40 days; by 50 days 65,000…(this is the growth pattern if the virus is not contained); Community involvement 30-40% ; Cases requiring hospitalization 20%; Cases requiring ICU care 5%; US 96 million cases; 4.8 million admissions; 1.9 million ICU; 480,000 Deaths; and overall mortality rate has ranged between 2 and 3.4 %.
What is the incubation period ?
The average is 4-6 days after infection. As the virus replicates during the incubation time you are contagious.
How long does the virus live on surfaces or inanimate objects (example door handles)?
The virus will live an average of 9 days, possibly longer if moisture is present.
What works to boost your immune system?
Keep your stress levels down, its a viscous cycle. The more you stress about the virus, the more likely you are to suffer from it. Stress hurts your immune system. The stress hormone, cortisol, weakens your immune system. Exercise - low to moderate intensity exercise naturally lowers cortisol levels and helps with immune system function. Don’t go overboard, high intense athletes have an increased risk of infection. Get adequate sleep, 7-8 hours of sleep a night, children should get more. Eat plenty of yogurt to boost your probiotics and help support the good bacteria in your gut, which helps to fight bad bacteria or viruses. Finally, watch your diet. Stick to a healthful, balanced diet filled with lots of colorful fruits and vegetables. Your immune system also depends on lots of water and reduce alcohol consumption. Final advice is stop smoking or vaping. Smokers and vapers are at much higher risk for respiratory disease and therefore have a higher rate of serous illness and complications from coronavirus.
What should we be doing to quarantine ourselves and family?
In order to prevent transmission and help with mitigate the virus from spreading, it is highly recommended at this time to quarantine yourself to your home. Limit all but essential travel; limit time in public places such as restaurants and coffee shops; give yourself at least 6 feet distance from others in public places; wash hands with soap for 20 seconds several times a day and avoid touching your face. Clean often touched surfaces with dilute bleach (4 teaspoons bleach per quart). Wipe counter tops, light switches, door handles, cabinet handles, fridge door handles, phones, remotes, keyboards, etc. If exposed to known or strongly suspected cases, then please enter into self quarantine for 14 days. If you are developing symptoms or test positive then remain in self quarantine for as long as 21 days or at least 10 days after your fever breaks.
How does Covid-19 compare to the flu?
Covid-19 is much more contagious and infectious than flu. There is a fundamental difference in how flu and Covid-19 kill. Many deaths from flu are caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia after the flu has weakened someone’s resistance. With Covid-19 most deaths are caused by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which causes already-damaged lung tissue to fill with fluid. Unlike pneumonia, there is no pharmaceutical treatment for ARDS. The only treatment for ARDS is ventilator support, and this is why a potential shortage of ventilators is so dangerous.
Unlike flu, there is no vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 and we are unlikely to have one for at least a year or ever. Recognize that Covid-19 is caused by a novel virus and therefore there is no natural immunity to it.
Summary
Although the coronavirus pandemic will certainly get worse before it gets better, it will get better. Even at the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, many people will not get infected, and of those who do get infected, 99 out of 100 will recover. So, its responsible to be proactive now to limit the harms of Covid-19, but its also good to keep in mind that this, too, will pass.
By taking these actions on both a personal and societal level, we give ourselves the best chance to mitigate the impact of Covid-19. Its too late now to prevent this coronavirus from spreading in our communities, but by working together to limit and slow that spread , we can save lives.
What can we do as a church body?
As a result of the coronavirus, all sectors of business and life will be adversely affected: schools closing, retail closing, all service and hospitality shutting down, reduction of airport activity and public transportation, and crushing of the stock market. God reminds us in Isaiah 41:10 Do not fear, for I am with you; Do not anxiously look about you, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, surely I will help you, Surely I will uphold you with My righteous right hand. God tells us in Philippians 4:4-7 to rejoice in the Lord always again I will say rejoice. Let your gentle spirit be known to all men. The Lord is near. Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all comprehension, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus. Finally we are reminded in Romans 8:28 that God causes all things to work together for good to those who love God, to those who are called according to His purpose.
I close this letter with hope and love for all of you. I’m encouraged by the prayer of Jabez in 1 Chronicles 4: 9-10, Oh that you would bless me indeed and enlarge my territory that Your hand would be with me and that You would keep me from evil. We the church are His people and hand chosen to be called His children. God wants to bless us with His attributes so that we can enlarge our territory, during this crisis, and give glory to Him. God’s blessing to all who have read this letter. In Christ Jesus our Savior our Lord.
Dr. David Verst, CBC Elder